Syrian political and military events continue to scramble at every moment. Between the Turkish intimidation and sending military reinforcements to the Idlib and Aleppo countryside, and between the Syrian regime forces providing Russian support, the balance of forces changes to overshadow the course of events in the region.
Idlib is quiet, and Aleppo is burning. The eyes of the regime are at Bab al-Hawa
With the collapse of Saraqib in Idlib countryside, the Turkish screaming rose as a threat and a promise, supporting it to send military conveys to the region, which is like preparing for a new invasion, but the Syrian regime and with Russian support continues to annex more important areas to the stage of securing the outskirt of the international road (M5), after controlling in the evening Friday, on Oram al-Khbra in Aleppo countryside, amid calm on the Idlib fronts.
The regime ignited the Aleppo countryside, and it continues to crawl, placing al- Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey as its target, which has increased Turkish concern.
Turkish confusion and space for maneuvers is narrow
All these developments are pushing the Turks into confusion, narrowing the scope of political and military maneuvers, and playing on international contradictions on the Syrian scene.
Despite Turkish threats, and to send military frames to the region, they were hoping to reach understandings with Russia under the sound of artillery, but the regime continued to crawl, targeting Turkish points, and killing Turkish soldiers, and it did not happen without a Russian green light.
We have seen over the past days that the Turks, despite their intimidation, and as the regime forces advance, they transfer their points and return them back.
During this cold conflict, the Turks sought support from their traditional ally, the United States of America and NATO, but they did not.
The American messages were clear to the Turks, you must decide your success from the relationship with Russia, where the Washington delegate in NATO stated that they support Turkey against the regime, but they do not agree with all their actions in Syria.
This was followed by a statement by a high-ranking State Department official, who said that Turkey should come close to the West to settle the Syrian file, instead of relying on Russia.
"I think what we see in Syria is evidence of Turkish and Russian interests mismatching," said the official, who asked not to be identified.
By doing so, it turns out that the Turks continue to persevere, but in the end they are forced to choose between the allies.
The Russian ally no longer has to keep up with the Turks again as he looks at Western Turkish messages with concern, and distrust between them is growing ever more.
As for the American ally, it will only provide support to Turkey if it makes concessions in the Syrian file and abandon all the agreements it concluded with Russia, such as the S-400 deal, and gas deals that Turkey will not be able to abandon.
Through this, the scenario became more likely to be the Turkish concession again to Russia, as happened after the downing of the Russian plane. After the regime took control of all the important areas in Idlib, the battles there calmed down, and it has been transferred to Aleppo, also to control all the important areas and blocking the supply routes.
The regime and Russia do not care now to enter deep into Idlib, so that the West does not become angry with a new wave of displacement, most likely that the battles will stop after securing international roads. Here Erdogan will promote that the Turkish forces are the ones which stopped the progress of the regime.