Decline in expectations for Syrian returns from Turkey in 2026

Data from Turkey’s 2027 budget proposal showed a decline in official projections for Syrian returns during the current year, with the expected number no longer exceeding 210,000 people, compared with a previous target of 700,000, under the voluntary, safe, dignified and orderly return programme.

According to the Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet, the gap between the target and the new estimates stands at 490,000 people, meaning that the projected returns account for only 30% of the target set by the authorities for 2026.

Turkish authorities have also lowered their return targets for the coming years, aiming for 110,000 Syrians to return in 2027 and 90,000 in each of 2028 and 2029.

Data from the Presidency of Migration Management in Turkey, cited by the Turkish Research Centre on Asylum and Migration, also showed that the number of Syrians under temporary protection reached 2,202,879 as of 8 October 2026.

Meanwhile, the authorities expect to deport 70,000 foreign nationals by the end of the current year as part of their broader migration policy, in addition to processing 40,000 international protection applications. These figures are separate from the estimates for the voluntary return of Syrians.

The budget plans also include completing 200 kilometres of border patrol roads, constructing 80 kilometres of border wall, and completing 94 kilometres of camera and sensor lines.

Sh-S

ANHA