​​​​​​​Armenia and Azerbaijan ..old crisis renews on the impact of regional and international conflicts

The crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan has returned to the fore again, following renewed clashes on the northern border between the two countries, amid an accelerating Turkish entry on the crisis line, indicating that Ankara has opened a new front added to the balance of external conflicts involved in it, while observers are following the reactions of Moscow, which supports Armenia, what about timing and objectives?

Azerbaijan and Armenia said that the exchange of shooting started on Sunday, 12 July, and subsequently they accused each other of violating the ceasefire.

Seven soldiers and one civilian from Azerbaijan and two from Armenia were killed during renewed clashes between the two countries that fought a war in the 1990s around the Nagorno-Karabakh mountain region.

Turkey soon embroiled itself in the conflict, as Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said that his country would continue to stand with Azerbaijan against Armenia.

This came in a meeting held by Akar through the "video conferencing" technology with the chief of staff, Yashar Guler, the commanders of the ground forces Umit Dundar, the air force Hassan Kujuk Ak Yuz, the navy Adnan Ozpal, along with a number of his deputies.

And the media quoted sources in the occupied Afrin by Turkey in northern Syria, that the Turkish intelligence services began to register the names of the mercenaries, especially the mercenaries of the Turkmen factions, to plunge them in Azerbaijan to fight the Armenians.

The Nagorno-Karabakh region is at the center of the tense relationship between Yerevan and Baku. The Soviet authorities had annexed this mainly Armenian enclave to Azerbaijan in 1921, but declared independence in 1991 with support from Armenia.

This was followed by a war that killed 30,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. Despite signing a ceasefire agreement in 1994 and the establishment of Russian-American-French mediation under the name "Minisk Group", armed clashes are still taking place.

Turkey's geostrategic ambitions in the Caucasus and Central Asia made fuel-rich Azerbaijan whose people speak a branched language of Turkish, a primary ally in the region, a friendship reinforced by the common enmity of Armenia.

As for Armenia, it bears a grudge towards Turkey because of the genocide of the Ottoman Empire, about one and a half million Armenians during the First World War.

Meanwhile, Russia maintains closer ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan and sells them arms. Yerevan has joined political, economic and military alliances led by Moscow, most notably the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

One of the marginalized aspects of the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict is that the war is taking place in the areas that were predominantly Kurds and was once the Soviet Republic of Kurdistan or known as (Red Kurdistan) that Moscow established in 1923 and Stalin declared its ending in 1929  for many reasons, including the absolute rejection of it by Azerbaijan, and the interests between Stalin and Ataturk.

Armenia tried to win the Kurds by preserving their rights, while Azerbaijan pursued a policy of erasing identity and political exclusion.

Historical Background 

On this, the Egyptian expert in the affairs of extremist movements and international terrorism, Munir Adib spoke to Hawar News Agency saying: "There are well-known historical backgrounds behind the conflict over southwestern Azerbaijan, in addition to the presence of ethnic and religious tensions, which are the cause of the real crisis between the two parties.

"There are those fuel the conflict."

On the reason for the escalation again, Adib said: "There are those who fuel this conflict and support Azerbaijan to re-talk in this region that it says that Armenia has controlled it, mainly Turkey, which sees its Islamic character through Erdogan and his support for extremist religious groups, that Azerbaijan is closer to it from Armenia, which hosts Turkey, and sees that the grandparents of Erdogan carried out a great massacre and annihilated many people in Armenia. Thus Azerbaijan is greatly supported in reviving this issue. "

New Turkish Front

The Egyptian expert explained that "the most important and main reason for this continuing conflict is the use of Azerbaijan in this battle against the opponents of Turkey. Armenia is an ancient opponent for Turkey."

On the timing of the escalation, Adib thinks that "the timing seems important, as Turkey witnesses a real crisis and many conflicts. There are severe pressures by the Russians who are allies for the Armenians and have a military and political alliance led by Moscow, as known, according to the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

"Turkey uses Azerbaijan to stir unrest with political opponents, whether in Armenia or with the Russian alliance, because in the end Turkey has demands."

"Pressure to remain a card"

Regarding the event scenarios, Adib said, "The situation will continue as it is. This issue is raised between the two sides a century ago, and its solution seems difficult in light of the political complications in the international and regional scene. Therefore, Turkey will use Azerbaijan as a card to pressure the Armenians because the Armenians are demanding a trial for Turkey for the genocide that the Ottoman Empire made against the Armenians.

"Turkey and Russia do not agree on some of the files, so the idea of raising this issue also causes a major crisis for Russia, and therefore Turkey is pressuring the Russians," he added.

He concluded his speech by saying: "The developments will not go into anything. This conflict will remain as it is, perhaps for the next hundred years."

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ANHA


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