Russia announced that the heads of "guarantor states" in the "Astana" talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian Hassan Rouhani, will meet today, Wednesday, via video technology to discuss the situation in Syria.
This meeting comes after rounds of escalation in Idlib, in which talk is being made of Turkish orders for mercenaries of "Tahrir al-Sham" to liquidate everyone who opposes Russian-Turkish understandings there, after several Russian accusations to Turkey of delaying the implementation of these understandings.
The Libyan file also witnessed a variation and contradiction in Russian-Turkish interests, which led to the cancellation of a meeting between the delegations of the two countries, which was scheduled for the 14th of last June.
At that time, Russia canceled a visit of its foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, and its defense minister, Sergey Shoygo, to Istanbul to discuss developments in the situation in Libya with Turkish officials.
"A meeting at a sensitive time"
On these meetings, the Syrian journalist and political analyst Malik al-Hafiz said to ANHA agency, "The tripartite summit between the heads of state guaranteeing the Astana process is back at a sensitive and important time. The necessity to discuss the joint files has increased in importance after several skirmishes in the past period."
What will the "guarantors" discuss?
On what will be discussed, Al-Hafiz clarified, "What might top the files discussed during the virtual summit today, Wednesday, is the discussion of imposing" Caesar's Law "sanctions on Damascus and their consequences in the form of the relationship between the Astana track countries, and how these sanctions can be an engine for escalation indirectly, being Both Moscow and Tehran are targeting Damascus allies, and what will also connect to Caesar is his influence on the crisis of the "Corona" in the country.
"Likewise, the problematic file represented by the oil fields, their administration and the current US control over them in the Syrian east. In addition to the economic consequences that will strike the already deteriorating Syrian economy and how the Russian-Iranian deal with it, there is also the file of the Constitutional Committee, which the guarantor countries see as a file that must be returned to within the shortest time to move." The political wheel, after a "reluctantly acceptable" arrangement so far from Russia to the Syrian north, is the file that has become the backyard for the administration of influence for the Astana states.
Al-Hafiz believes that there will be an attempt by the Russian and Turkish sides to neutralize other files shared by both parties, and to keep them away from linking to the Syrian file, especially the Libyan file, which raised high sensitivity recently, after Iran entered the line alongside Turkey.
Al-Hafiz believes that the first field file that will be discussed is "Idlib, which will be the subject of joint discussion, especially since Turkey has not moved in its procedures to ensure the perimeter of the international road M4 of the forces listed on terrorist lists, and has not abided by its pledges to Russia." Terrorist forces and get rid of their inconvenience to the Russian-Turkish understandings, as well as their impact on withdrawing the fuse of the expected military escalation in the north there.
As for the regions of north and east Syria, Al-Hafiz said, "The Russian-Turkish understanding, not announced through the Moscow agreement last March, regarding the exchange of spheres of influence between regions such as Manbij, Ain Issa, Kobani / Ain al-Arab and other areas in the northwest is somewhat deferred to considerations of the current stage. Its priorities, with the exception of Ain Issa, are opposite the Jabal Zawiya area, which may be the compass of field movements on the ground.
Al-Hafiz concluded his speech by noting that Russia is trying to control the tracks of the Syrian file through the side of the Northeast and influence them due to the American presence there. He also said, "It is also not possible to overlook the Iranian influence that Israel is increasing the frequency of its targeting in the Syrian East and the impact this has on the balance of balances on Syrian land. "