Bargaining for Kurds between Russia, Turkey and Syria - Shukro Kadak

​​​​​​​Turkey's foreign policy is notoriously in crisis. It has long lacked visibility.

It seems that it has not achieved any result from style, offensive chain and aggressive attitudes. Interference in Syria's internal affairs, Libyan and Iraqi, is over. It may not have reached its immediate end, but at least it has become clear that its path does not yield a long-term benefit.

The Syrian issue remains of daily importance. The prospect of a new occupation attack on Rojava was Erdogan's most important election campaign in the upcoming elections. During the first election, the AKP won the support of the United States of America and showed itself as a project and won it. It seems that this time he has to get Russia's support to win the crucial elections to be held next year.

If we look at the issue in the context of domestic politics, the way to win elections is to attack Rojava and establish good relations with Russia. It needs Russian oligarchs' capital to stabilize the economy.

Because of the Ukrainian war, Russia's import of the materials it needs through Turkey is in line with Turkey's desire for oil and its derivatives. The electoral strategy relies on the calculation of strengthening political and economic relations with Russia and is implemented accordingly. A bilateral relationship in which each other desperately needs to each other will create stability for Turkey's crisis at this stage. Essentially, Akoyo Station creates a legal basis for capital transfer.

Russia directs the Turkish state towards al-Assad. Regardless of the implications of this on domestic policy, it can be said that this is support for Erdogan. But Turkey's demands are very different. The two countries have many demands, but they are cracking in the most important circumstances. The condition that Turkey cannot abandon; is its desire to eliminate AANES and establishment a Safe Zone at a depth of 30 km and resolve the refugee issue. Syria also demands Turkey's withdrawal from the occupied territories and the opening of the M4 route from Lattakia to Iraq and control of Idlib and border crossings. Again, bargaining for Kurds is on the agenda.

At the same time, Russia is forcing Turkey to engage in dialogue with the Syrian regime, but of course it has a perspective on how to resolve current issues. No doubt it will create acceptance of approaches that satisfy Erdogan. This includes allowing a limited operation against Rojava. That is, they serve barley, but they take wheat, and Rojava can be sacrificed. They can remain silent about intervention until they reach an agreement with Iran. Of course, the usefulness of this will be shown to Erdogan and his influence on the elections over time.

The dialogue imposed in Syria and Syria's position on the renewal of the Adana Agreement and the issues of joint hostility against Kurds are of interest. Syria, because it has many problems with Turkey, has not yet reached the stage of "joint hostility against Kurds". Negotiations will be prolonged on many issues such as the presence of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, the amendment of the Constitution which includes AANES, learning in the mother tongue, solving problems on the basis of Syria's unity, sharing economic resources, security issues and the status of the military presence of the People Protection Units YPG, Women Protection Units YPJ and Syrian Democratic Forces SDF. Will Syria resolve these issues with AANES through dialogue or war? It has not yet reached this stage.

Turkey's foreign policy that tried to turn the Syrian war into a good collapsed. The need for dialogue with Syria will force Turkey to abandon the Syrian opposition it supports. Because dialogue will not always be ongoing and it is forced to retract its actions and statements so far to embrace al-Assad. Essentially, Erdogan is successful in such issues. He has not stopped at his firm and strong promises many times.

The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria AANES is the basis of dialogue with the Syrian administration and has been looking for it for a long time. The desire to solve problems on the basis of the Constitution is the most reasonable method for both parties. Russia is known to be in favour of cultural rights and long-standing demands for autonomy. The Turkish state's desire to create a new conflict by targeting Kurds has become meaningless.

Russia, Iran and the United States of America have expressed their position against military occupation. Regardless of their shy attitude, it's clear it doesn't want to. They can bargain the Kurds in line with their interests and that's what will make their position soft.

The bargaining of Kurds between Russia, Turkey and Syria is not complete. AANES’ components, especially Kurds, can remain in a state of long-term preparedness, and strengthen their position to be able to defend and preserve their achievements. Their political, military and organizational status must be taken into account in accordance with these circumstances and prepared.

T/ Satt.