Hawar news agency conducted an interview with expert on the Middle Eastern affairs Hamida Yigit to talk about the future of Turkish-Russian relations against the backdrop of the Russian missile systems deal S-400.
Yigit said that the S-400 deal is the product of a changing phase in which Turkey was in desperate need of Russia. Turkey also tried to send a message to America, especially that America was directing its ally in NATO either in Syria or during the July 15 coup attempt, and America has left Turkey in the face of the economic sanctions of Russia after Turkey downed a Russian aircraft, this pushed Turkey to go to Russia."
A message to America, improving relations with Russia, gains in Syria""
"The S-400 is considered a campaign for Turkey to achieve three goals: first to send a message to America, second to improve its relations with Russia, and third, most importantly, to turn its failure in Syria into gains." At this stage, Turkey held a strategic alliance with Iran and Russia over Syria and the transfer of armed elements changed the course of the war in Syria, while the United States and its allies were occupied with the areas of eastern Euphrates only, in an effort to enhance their gains which were achieved by virtue of the Syrian Democratic Forces. Therefore, the US reaction about the deal was initially weak, but Turkey-with the passage of time- dragged itself more and more towards Russia and distanced from America."
Turkey is affected whether it gets the S-400 or not""
"Turkey, under its foreign policy, could pull back on the S-400 at any moment," Yigit said, adding that "as the delivery date for the S-400 missile system to Turkey approaches, Russia has sent experts to Turkey in preparation for the installation of the S-400 system and it seems that if Turkey continues its current position it will receive the missile systems, but the fluctuations of Turkish foreign policy indicate that Turkey may abandon the deal at any moment. It has no problems with neighbors, and at another moment, Turkey says we do not have neighbors, as a result, Turkey is determined to receive Russian missile systems, but it may break its promises at any moment, but an important point is that Turkey is affected in both cases: if it accepts the US F-35 offer or abandons its deal with Russia If it insists on the Russian S-400, it will be barred from buying the American F-35 and will pay a heavy bill.
"Economic sanctions will lead to the collapse of the economy"
Yigit also said that Turkey's acceptance of the S-400 deal will bring about "influential factors in the Turkish economy." With the purchase of Russian missile systems, the Turkish economy will not be significantly affected, because Turkey has concluded trade deals with Russia in conjunction with the missile deal. Downing the Russian aircraft and death of its pilot cost Turkey a great deal, as Russia imposed economic sanctions, which stopped agricultural exports and seriously damaged the Turkish economy, the purchase of the Russian missile system itself would not harm the Turkish economy, but it is the economic sanctions."
"Turkey is in a critical situation"
"Turkey is now in a difficult situation," Middle Eastern affairs expert Hamida Yigit said. "If Turkey buys Russian missile systems, it will lose its relations with America." Turkey has reached an impasse, and the S-400 deal will foil the US F-35 deal. NATO has expressed its displeasure with the purchase of Russian missile systems, and held Turkey responsible for that, criticizing the US that it did not take into account the concerns of the Turkish security, and the criticism was centered-in particular-on the US' marginalization to Turkey in relation to Turkey's position of the Kurds in Syria which contributed to strengthening the Kurdish opposition resulting in turning an ally such as Turkey to the bosom of Russia, indicating that the NATO countries are calling on America to listen to Turkish concerns and work to keep Turkey away from Russia. It is not known where the developments will lead to; however, it is known so far that America can turn its back to the Kurds at any moment because of national interests and work to satisfy Turkey and when Turkey gets US guarantees, it may work to reduce relations with Russia, in the sense that relations can change at any moment in line with interests.
"Turkey and Russia seek to promote a common policy in Syria"
"Russia and Turkey will work together in Syria, and with the purchase of Russian missile systems, Turkish policies in Syria will converge with Russian interests in the region in general," Yigit said, adding that Russia would work to achieve Turkish interests in Syria which presence on the Syrian territory is possible only with the consent of Russia, in return for the liberation of the Syrian territory from the armed groups, but these groups-which Turkey guaranteed-were able to occupy other areas of Syria and Russia turned a blind eye to this matter. This stage began with Sochi, and this strategic alliance is a temporary one depending on the situation on the ground, but if Turkey insists on installing Russian missile systems despite American objections, the Russian-Turkish alliance based on interests will take a long-term course, and Russia will work to remove (Turkish security concerns) while, simultaneously, protecting the interests of Kurds and putting forward a model that satisfies the Syrian government."
"Costs will be prohibitive"
"Turkey now has to choose between Russia and America, but Turkey is not in a position to make choices easily and smoothly, and as each option has its own advantages, it will also be prohibitive. Turkey put itself in it mainly because of the mistakes it made in Syria, and these wrong policies, called "blind strategies", have brought Turkey into this situation. These erroneous policies lead to such critical situations, and Turkey's situation is very grave." Concluded Hamida Yigit.