Idlib .. Termination flirting or division of Syria forever?

The trio deals (Erdogan, Putin and Rohani) are meeting today in Turkey to discuss sharing their influence in Syria, but Idlib, in which Erdogan has gathered all terrorist groups, will end the flirting between these countries or will divide Syria forever.

In 2016, the features of the Syrian crisis began to change with the surrender of Turkey, the city of Aleppo to the Russian forces, the main supporter of the regime's forces, and in 2017, these changes were confirmed with the agreement of Russia, Turkey and Iran to consult and dialogue together to achieve the interests of the three countries at the expense of the blood of the Syrian people , In so-called Astana meetings resulting in the so-called reduction zones escalation.
The reduction zones were a Russian idea that met Iran's ambitions to eliminate opponents of the Syrian regime. On the other hand, it was useful for Turkey to intervene directly in the Syrian situation after its mercenary groups, including al- Mujahedeen and IS, were losing ground and popular land as a result of their aggressive practices against the Syrians as a whole.
Today, the heads of state of the three countries meet in Ankara, Turkey, to discuss the outcome of their agreements in the interest, not caring what they did  for t Syrian people and Syria. But what needs to be seen is that each of these countries has projects and schemes different from the other, even if converged now and one day will inevitably face.
Turkey wants through this tripartite agreement to eliminate the Kurdish presence in its historic areas and to eliminate any democratic project that destroys dictators in the region. It seeks through Russia to preserve the national state system that is the cause of the problems in the Middle East.
Turkey is seeking to establish a Sunni region on its border from ـJerbilos to Idlib, which explains why it is a grouping of all the terrorist groups in Syria, especially Idlib. Therefore, Erdogan repeatedly says that they will return the displaced Syrians in Turkey (who are Sunni) This area, not being a resident of the region, but from different regions of Syria.
Iran is the only one that understands the road that connects Tehran to Beirut via Syria and Iraq. Therefore, tens of thousands of Shiites have been sent to Syria to fight alongside the regime's forces, and following the concentration of these Iranian groups, they will see this road in Syria.

And the only obstacle remains in front of it the area of ​​Qalamoun, which is currently talking about the removal of mercenary groups or the start of a military operation against them.
Russia is more satisfied with its partners in killing the Syrian people (Iran and Turkey) because it has secured its air and naval bases (Hameim and Tartous) on the Syrian coast. But it has the problem of protecting Israel's security by keeping Tehran out or reducing its influence in Syria.
In addition, Russia seeks to incite Turkey to launch attacks on the Syrian north, similar to what happened in Afrin, in order to ensure Turkey's confrontation with NATO and Turkey's departure from the alliance and joining the Russian axis, but the Turkish attack on East Euphrates is risky and puts Turkish schemes Erdogan's presence in power is at stake, and much is ruled out for Erdogan to do so foolishly.
On the other hand, Russia seeks to ensure the regime's control over the whole of Syria to reduce the impact of Turkey and Iran and ensure a stable presence in Syria does not cost them more than it cost now.
This plan and the Russian target makes all the areas beyond the control of the regime, including the province of Idlib, where Turkey has gathered, all the terrorist groups in Syria.
Tripartite meetings (Putin, Erdogan and Rohani) have two option. The first is to continue this strategy to the end. This means practically dividing Syria, forming an upper region and a Sunni region. The conflict continues indefinitely, costing all parties considerable losses. Collision with terrorist groups and Turkey behind them.
In contrast, the second option seems likely, because Iran and the regime will not accept the Turkish presence in the region, control large areas and establish a Sunni region that threatens Iranian interests and serves as a launch pad for aborting Iranian efforts in Syria.



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