Libya's agreement between optimism and skepticism, and Washington began to restore sanctions on Iran

The head of the GNA, Fayez al-Sarraj, and the speaker of the Libyan Parliament, Aguila Saleh, reached an agreement on a ceasefire and the start of a political settlement, as observers saw that this was a blow to Turkey, while others questioned the possibility of implementing the agreement and the intentions of reconciliation, while Washington fired the bullet of mercy on the Iranian nuclear agreement.

On Saturday morning, Arab newspapers touched upon the agreement between the Libyan parties on a ceasefire and the start of a political settlement, as opinions differed on this between optimistic and skeptical of the intentions of GNA, in addition to American pressure on Iran.

Al-Bayan: The Libyan agreement is a culmination of Cairo and a blow to Ankara

Al-Bayan newspaper saw that the agreement came as a blow to the Turkish moves and said: “The agreement between the Libyan House of Representatives and the Presidency Council of the Government of National Accord came to cease fire and return to the political path towards organizing parliamentary and presidential elections next spring, to topple the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s project, under the invitation of the two parties to the departure of foreign forces and mercenaries from the country, and to secure Sirte and Jufrah with regular police forces from various regions of the country.

According to the statements issued by the two conflicting parties, the ceasefire will coincide with the return of the Libyan oil injection to foreign markets, provided that its revenues are deposited in an account with the Libyan Foreign Bank and remain in a state of freezing until a political solution is reached, which will cut off the financing of the militias outlawed and mercenary and terrorist groups.

The agreement was achieved under American pressure on the two parties, and guarantees from Washington and other countries to push for a political settlement in accordance with the outcomes of the Berlin Conference and the Cairo Declaration, which is what Parliament insists on and is supported by the National Army, and the German Foreign Minister informed him last Monday to the Tripoli authorities in a clear letter. From the American viewpoint supported by Europe.

According to informed sources, the American guarantees were given to all parties that none of them would go beyond the understandings, while completely restraining Erdogan's mercenaries and beginning to deport them, and launching the project to dissolved the militias in the west of the country, and seeking to integrate the regular military forces under the command of al-Sarraj government into the army The Libyan nationalist, and towards a politician, one of his preludes will be entering into a comprehensive national reconciliation. Yesterday's agreement is considered a terrible defeat for the Turkish project in Libya.

Whereas Ankara, which was not ceasing to beat the drums of war in Sirte and al-Jufrah, and was working to extend its influence over the areas of wealth, especially the Oil Crescent, it had no choice but to stand on the status quo, as there is no room for attempts to blackmail GNA after today, and there is no room for more from pushing towards tension to imposing its agenda for resolution.

Al-Arab: The devil of details lurks in the Libyan agreement

As for the Tunisian journalist, Mona Mahrouqi, questioned the applicability of this agreement through an article she wrote in Al-Arab newspaper, she said: "The agreement of the parties to the Libyan conflict on the cease-fire raised cautious optimism amid fears that its implementation would be stalled due to disagreements that are not excluded over some details."

The two statements reflected a consensus on a number of points, including the issue of disposing of oil revenues and making Sirte-Jufra a demilitarized zone, but the difference in some details related to that area, which was the focus of escalation during the last period, may impede the implementation of the agreement.

"Is this declaration fully achievable?" Asked political analyst Jalal al-Harchaoui, a researcher at the Clingendael Institute for International Relations in The Hague, and a specialist in Libyan affairs. It is likely to be difficult to implement,” indicating that there are several regional powers that could play a destabilizing role for the agreement.

It is clear that there are concerns about the commitment of the Tripoli government (the Government of National Accord) to the ceasefire and consider it a truce to rearrange Turkey's cards in Libya, and to fragment the regional position rejecting Ankara's interventions, so total abstention from any military action is the appropriate formula for any agreement that may occur.

According to observers, Turkey's experiences of a cease-fire in Syria confirm that Ankara is good at maneuvering with this paper and that it wants calm now to absorb regional and international anger.

Some of them view the Tripoli government’s approval of the ceasefire with suspicion. They attribute this to the pressures it is going through, whether external or internal, especially the economic crisis caused by stopping oil exports.

Observers say that the devil lies in the details of implementing the ceasefire and the necessary security arrangements regarding the demilitarized zone, and how to prepare for parliamentary and presidential elections next March.

Al-Sarraj stressed that “achieving an actual ceasefire requires that the Sirte and al-Jufra areas become demilitarized, and the police forces from both sides agree on security arrangements within them,” while Aqila Saleh did not mention al-Jufra and only suggested that “the city of Sirte be a temporary seat for the Presidential Council. The new thing brings together all Libyans and brings them closer, provided that an official security police force from various regions would secure them, in preparation for the unification of state institutions as a basic consensual stage of construction, provided that military arrangements are completed according to the negotiation track (5 + 5) under the auspices of the UN mission, whose outputs are committed once agreed upon and officially announced.

While Aqila Saleh stressed the need for the police forces to be official security forces, that is, carry national figures since before 2011, observers do not rule out that the Accord Government provides elements of militias who have recently undergone some training in order to equip them for this task as regular police forces.

It is unlikely that the army, which has not commented on the agreement, will withdraw from Sirte and al-Jufrah before providing guarantees that mercenaries and militias will not accept the arrival of mercenaries and militias to secure the demilitarized zone, amid expectations that negotiations over them will be the last steps in the agreement and not the first of them as Islamists and Turkey want.

Aqila Saleh's statement reflects an endeavor to transform the city of Sirte into a political capital that does not belong to any of Libya's three historical regions: Tripoli, Barqa and Fezzan. However, the acceptance of the idea by the Accord Government, and behind it, Ankara and Washington, is unlikely, given that Tripoli believes that the central region belongs to it and cannot easily overreach it, especially since most of the oil fields and export ports are concentrated there.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat: America fires a "bullet of mercy" at the Iranian nuclear deal

On the Iranian issue, Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper said: “The United States fired “bullet of mercy” at the Iranian nuclear agreement, and officially started activating the "Snapback” mechanism to automatically re-impose international sanctions, in accordance with Resolution 2231, in a move that sparked a rare rift in the Security Council, after rejecting of the parties involved in the nuclear deal. "

Late Thursday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo asked the Security Council to activate the mechanism, and said in a letter he delivered to the Secretary-General of the United Nations,  António Guterres, the Indonesian permanent representative to the international organization, Diane Trainsah Dajani, and his Nigerian counterpart Abdo Abari, whose country holds the presidency for the month of September, in which he affirmed that according to paragraph 11 of Resolution 2231 “The Security Council was informed that Iran is fundamentally in breach of Its obligations under the 2015 nuclear deal.”

UN Resolution 2,231 sets binding timetables for all member states, especially for the president of the Security Council, who must present a new draft resolution stating "a request to preserve the joint comprehensive action plan."

A Western diplomat told Asharq Al-Awsat that the United States “wants to act with Iran, 30 days after the notification was submitted, with a cover from the previous decisions taken by the Security Council and suspended in 2015 by Resolution 2,231,” expecting that this would lead to raising the level of pressure.” The American and the international spontaneously on Iran ».



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