The Russian-Turkish agreement on Idlib in Moscow at the beginning of last March, after months of escalation, prompted some to talk about the near end of the dilemma of this city, but it soon became clear that this agreement is not different in essence from its predecessors.
The agreement entered its sixth month a few days ago, amid military and field data that clearly indicate that it is on the verge of collapse, in light of the continuous crowds of government forces in the southern countryside of Idlib, with the return of air strikes by the Russian air force, in addition to the continuation of the Turkish occupation by sending reinforcements.
The Syrian Observatory had monitored days ago, military convoys of the Syrian government forces, from the eastern countryside of Idlib, southern and southwestern Aleppo, to new sites in the vicinity of Kafr Nabl and the Jabal al-Zawiya area in the southern countryside of Idlib, coinciding with intermittent clashes on several axes in the southern countryside of Idlib.
On the other hand, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitored, on Sunday, the entry of a new convoy of the Turkish occupation from the Kafr Lossin crossing, north of Idlib, containing tanks, armored vehicles and logistical materials. The convoy consists of about 40 vehicles, and with the continued flow of convoys of the Turkish occupation, the number of vehicles that entered the Syrian territories since the start of the new ceasefire reached 5,280 vehicles, in addition to thousands of soldiers.
'Idlib truce temporary'
Therefore, the Syrian journalist and political analyst Malik Al-Hafez told Hawar News Agency, saying, "The truce is temporary in the Idlib region to de-escalate the escalation. I believe that the Russian delay in moving any military action around the M4 highway or towards the Bab al-Hawa crossing area was related to several factors, the first of which is the pandemic of the virus." The new virus, and the second of which is the complexity of the scene in Libya and the rivalry between the two partners in Syria (Russia and Turkey), and their interest in focusing on that file even though Russia is seeking more than Turkey to bargain in Libya through Syria.
"Failure in northern and eastern Syria will lead to escalation in northern and western Syria."
Al-Hafiz added: "As for the third of those factors, it is an attempt to prevent the disruption of Russian-Turkish understandings in the east of the Euphrates. I believe that this will return to the escalation in northwestern Syria, due to the high level of the American role there. It is the one that would disrupt any understandings that could have been applied between the Russians and the Turks, especially the exchange of areas of influence east and west of the Euphrates, in addition to another fourth factor, which is the expiration of the deadline set by Russia for Turkey regarding liquidating the presence of jihadist groups in Idlib, which has not happened during the last period, for reasons related to Turkey's desire to invest this card.
"Escalation will return before or during the constitutional committee session."
Regarding Idlib, Al-Hafiz said, "What will happen, in my estimation, in northern Syria is the military escalation on the part of Moscow and Damascus. It may come after the third session of the Constitutional Committee (late this month), or even during its session, as the heating is increasing in the region there, and Russia's objective is clear, which Turkey may not implicitly disagree with, which is to tighten control over the perimeter of the M4 highway, as well as access to the Bab al-Hawa crossing.
"Turkey is unable to clash with Russia, Iran and the regime"
On the goal of Turkey reinforcements, Al-Hafiz believes, "Turkey is increasing reinforcements is a message from which it is trying to maintain balance in the region, at least on the media level, but it cannot enter into any collision on the ground against the Syrian regime, the Russians, or even the Iranians."
He added, "Ending the cease-fire is actually happening on the ground. Russia has no problem with that because it is aware of the difficulty of neutralizing the Syrian file from the rest of the common files with Turkey, especially in Libya."
"The expected escalation in Idlib will not enter into deals for the time being."
Al-Hafez explained: "There is a Russian-French rapprochement through which the two parties meet on several directions, which Russia sought to confront the constant Turkish threat to its partnership card with the United States. French-Russian rapprochement would strengthen the differences in Libya, as well as in Syria, dispel the consensus." Or at least, its comment on Turkey's access to new areas east of the Euphrates, which means that the anticipated escalation in Idlib will not be part of any deals currently, but rather it will come through the pretext that Turkey has not fulfilled its promise to end the presence of jihadist
A Russian military operation towards the Bab al-Hawa crossing.
Al-Hafez continued, saying, “We must be careful that Russia’s restriction of distributing humanitarian aid across borders through a single crossing, the Bab al-Hawa crossing controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is only a prelude to moving military action towards that area, a crossing controlled by an organization that is on international terrorist lists. "
The Syrian journalist and political analyst concluded, saying: “Both Moscow and Damascus seek to control the perimeter of the international highway Aleppo-Lattakia, as well as access to the Bab al-Hawa crossing, and the two parties will not be more than this approach, of course Russia realizes that it may grant papers in return that satisfy Turkey Whether in Syria or outside it, and otherwise, the explosion of the situation and the collapse of all understandings will impose itself during the next stage. "
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