The Syrian province of Idlib, which is the warmest region in Syria now, will witness events in the coming days. The father will fail his obedient child under Russian pressure, but will Turkey succeed?
After the Turkish-Russian agreement to establish a demilitarized zone in the Syrian province of Idlib, which Turkey has shown as a victory for it and its mercenaries, it appears that the obedient child of Turkey has come out of the house of obedience.
Here we mean the mercenaries of Jabhit al-Nusra (now Hayet Tahrir al-Sham), which is on the global terrorism list. The first signs of the emergence of al-Nusra from the house of Turkish obedience is the Turkish declaration to it as a terrorist organization.
In fact, this was done under Russian pressure, and what we see now is that Russia controls the mercenary and terrorist gangs across Turkey, the proof of which is the removal of these groups from Daraa, the countryside, Damascus, Homs and its countryside.
Jabhit al-Nusra will fail the Turkish-Russian agreement
Given the status of the Jabhit al-Nusra, it is the strongest on the ground in Idlib, and has an arsenal of weapons earlier received from Turkey, in addition to the experienced elements from various countries of the world, most notably Turkey, which is a large incubator of al Qaeda.
The Jabhit al-Nusra controls 70% of the governorate of Idlib. It controls the central area of the governorate, namely Ma'arat al-Nu'man, Khan Shaykhoun, Sarqab, Kafr Nabel, the plain of the jungle, Tufataz, Idlib, Armanaz, Jisr al-Shughur, Sarmin, Atarab, and many other towns and cities.
The elements of Jabhit al-Nusra infiltrate within all the mercenary groups in Idlib and control them all. They also have a popular incubator in Idlib, and even inside Turkey, particularly Hatay.
There are also strategic relations between the Turkestan Islamic Party, which includes some 10,000 non-Syrian Asian mercenaries, which controls areas along the border, such as Ain al-Bayda, and its secret crossing there. The party possesses sophisticated weapons provided and supplied by Turkey.
Reliable sources from inside Idlib said that after Turkey withdrew its mercenaries from the demilitarized zone, it was preparing to mount a military campaign against Jabhit al-Nusra, which refuses to leave.
The source pointed out that Turkish officers held a meeting in Idlib with the groups of mercenary groups, saying that Turkey intends to launch an attack on Jabhit al-Nusra.
This Turkish position comes under intense Iranian and Russian pressure where at the tripartite gathering in Tehran, Putin indirectly told Erdogan that he had come to speak instead of terrorist groups.
In late 2017, Turkey established the Syrian Liberation Front, which in turn united with Ahrar al-Sham mercenaries, launched attacks on the positions of Jabhit al-Nusra in the western Aleppo countryside, and made progress, but the latter has returned to regain control of all areas that have been out of control.
Turkish attempts to resolve Jabhit al-Nusra under pressure have all failed, even under its new many labels, they were all in vain, with every new label, the United States goes out to declare it a terrorist organization.
Sources in the city of Ma'arat al-Nu'man confirmed that there is a resistance group that refuses to go out completely. This indicates that the agreement may fail, in addition to other indicators of the failure of the agreement: Jaish al-Iza refused to withdraw.
Therefore, in the coming days, Turkey will launch a military campaign against Jabhit al-Nusra in Idlib, but in return we may witness an escalation from the latter, we said earlier, that Jabhit al-Nusra is incubated even in Hatay, so explosions may be carried out inside Turkey and even in Istanbul and Ankara.
The two possibilities …
There are two possibilities awaiting the Turkish-Russian agreement, in both cases, Turkey is the loser.
The first is the possibility that Jabhit al-Nusra foils the agreement, and all of Russia, the Syrian regime and Iran will launch an attack on the province of Idlib to control them all, which means that Turkey will fail.
The second possibility is that Turkey and its mercenaries will launch a military campaign against Jabhit al-Nusra forcing it out of the region, but this means that they are waging a battle on Jabhit al-Nusra which cannot be underestimated, Turkey may not succeed in defeating it, given the trenches and tunnels dug in the rugged Idlib mountains.
The Syrian regime told Turkey that it was the one who spread the mercenary and terrorist groups in Syria. It must also end them. Either kill them or move them to Turkey or somewhere else, so there is a plan to liquidate the mercenary groups.
There is talk about the transfer of these groups to Afghanistan, especially Jabhit al-Nusra, but this is rejected by Iran, and considers it a Turkish-American plan to put Iran in a suffocating siege, the length of the border between Iran and Afghanistan is close to 1000 km.
On the other hand, Turkey has stated that it is possible to transfer the mercenary groups to fight in Qandil mountain and the legitimate defense areas against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Iran once again rejected as an attempt to place Iran in a siege and separate it from Iraq.
Will Turkey succeed in getting out of the crisis with minimal losses, or will it announce its catastrophic failure, as happened in many Syrian regions?